2 Solid Rally Days. Now What?
When the big corner is eventually turned for rates, it will have to start somewhere, so let’s talk about whether the current bond rally could be the first few steps in a longer journey. After hitting new long term highs last Thursday, bonds have rallied quite well over the past two days. That’s not really uncommon. In fact, the friendly bounce is no bigger than other recent examples of token corrections in the wake of hitting long term highs. We’re also not exactly stampeding through the next technical floor today. Bottom line, possible things are still possible, but they also still depend on data to drive and confirm the next phase. All we know for now is that the bond market is doing logical things at a big, psychological level. Perhaps logical isn’t quite the right word. Let’s say that bonds are “playing it safe” by adhering to a common technical pattern of revisiting the last big, broken ceiling around 4.83 and treating it as a floor for now. A neutral approach from here would suggest bonds need softer data to break much below 4.83. If it happens without data, it would reveal some excess bullishness.