Bonds Shoot The Moon After Lackluster Jobs Report
There was a lot riding on this morning’s jobs report. It was in an ideal position to cast a vote on this week’s bullish correction. A big beat was likely to undo much of the strength seen over the previous 2 days. A big miss was likely to accelerate the gains. At 150k vs a 180k forecast, today’s miss was much smaller than the average deviation from median forecasts, but bonds have rallied significantly nonetheless. With that, we’ve navigated the most highly consequential week since mid-September without hitting any obstacles. Given the number of obstacles and their level of importance, it’s not an exaggeration to say that bonds experienced a tremendously unlikely combination of friendly tailwinds. It doesn’t necessarily turn the tide of the war, but it’s the most decisive battle in our favor in about a year. Don’t be surprised or disheartened if we see a bit of a correction from here. Again, bonds have covered A LOT of ground this week. Next week’s calendar is empty by comparison with the exception of new, bigger Treasury auctions. It’s entirely reasonable to see the morning rally hit resistance at 4.55. If we close anywhere near that level, it’s still a moonshot.