The average mortgage lender was fairly close to their lowest levels of the past 2 months by yesterday afternoon and today saw almost no change.  That’s a departure from the recent trend of larger movements, but also an expected shift given the absence of big ticket economic data. Big ticket data refers to the scheduled economic reports like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which was responsible for the largest portion of this week’s improvement and Retail Sales which pushed back in the other direction the following day. Thankfully, Retail Sales wasn’t nearly up to the task...

Solid End to a Solid Week With essentially nothing meaningful on the economic or event calendar, the bond market did a good job sticking to a logical script of “more sideways and less volatile after CPI.”  It remains to be seen if that script will remain in force all the way until the first full week of December, but there’s nothing in terms of scheduled events that promises to derail it.  The only exception might be the weird trading dynamics occasionally seen on Thanksgiving week, but those must be taken with a grain of salt (or an...

Both of the key metrics for residential construction, housing permits, and housing starts, beat analysts’ expectations in October. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said permits rose 1.1 percent compared to September while housing starts increased by 1.5 percent. Permits were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.487 million units compared to 1.471 million units in September. The September estimate was only a slight revision from the 1.473 million originally reported. Analysts polled by Econoday had estimated that permits would come in at...

Join us Monday, November 20 at 12:00 p.m. ET for a live webinar to learn how to leverage our content and assets to present yourself as a trusted advisor and respected referral partner.Link to register: https://t.co/ljar21dqTw#mbshighway #loanofficerlife #mortgagepro pic.twitter.com/6oBligaOjq— MBS Highway (@MBSHighway) November 17, 2023

After a fantastic day on Tuesday and frustrating little bounce after yesterday’s Retail Sales data, mortgage rates have fully recovered back to the recent lows. Any time rates move enough to merit a discussion, it coincides with a similar move in the broader bond market.  Bonds are currently highly susceptible to economic data (as seen on Tue/Wed).  Whereas Wednesday’s data pushed bond yields and interest rates higher, Thursday’s data sang a different tune. weekly Jobless Claims (not to be confused with the big monthly “jobs report” that comes out on the first...

Yesterday’s Losses Easily Erased By Data Wednesday’s bond market losses rained on Tuesday’s post-CPI parade.  Justification was adequate, with Retail Sales coming in 0.2 higher than expected, but the implications for the near future were uncertain.  Were bonds only reacting to the data or was the CPI rally overdone to some small extent?  Today’s session helped answer those questions.  All it took was a modest miss in Jobless Claims and a few other 2nd tier reports for bonds to fully erase Wednesday’s losses. ...

The National Association of Homebuilders and Wells Fargo releases the results of a survey of NAHB members each month regarding the health of the homebuilding sector.  While officially referred to as the Housing Market Index (or HMI), the headline number is essentially “builder confidence.” After rising steadily from the end of 2022 through July, confidence has been in a tailspin across all categories.  Viewed against the backdrop of mortgage rates, it’s impossible to miss the general symmetry between higher rates and lower confidence. As rising rates gathered steam in the...

Happy Thanksgiving From The Bond Market. See You in December After Tuesday’s big CPI reaction, Wednesday brought the week’s only other top tier economic report.  Retail Sales may have been negative, but by coming in 0.2% higher than expected, the report paved the way for weakness in the bond market.  Actually, it’s probably more accurate to say that yesterday’s big rally paved the way for weakness in the bond market and today’s Retail Sales data confirmed that sellers need not fear a big, immediate extension of the rally. ...

Besides Janet Yellen’s In-N-Out foray, it is a rough environment out there: Hope you don’t want a Wells Fargo HELOC. Or just ask Citizens who is exiting the wholesale channel; More below on that. Many lenders are reporting unit volumes dropping by 50-70 percent, in part due to higher rates caused by inflation expectations. Buying stuff in the holidays will be more expensive this year, and here’s a personal tale of inflation. I happened to be near a See’s Candy store recently. Knowing that my daughter enjoys a treat from time to time, we went in and, without looking at the prices, bought a can...