Bonds Hoping For No Whammies Heading Into Next Week
Things have been eventful this week, to say the least, especially when considering the level of volatility relative to the underlying market movers in play. We’ve talked a bit about why we’re seeing that volatility and it makes fairly good logical sense (recent spike to long term highs, position squaring, Fed shiftiness, big unknowns ahead, etc). In not so many words, this week’s big, sideways volatility is a logical set-up for what could be an incredibly consequential week ahead (Fed announcement, Treasury refunding, all the big-ticket data). That leaves today as a less consequential epilogue and one in which bonds best outcome would simply be to sneak sideways into the weekend with little fanfare. There has been no major or lasting reaction to either of this morning’s economic reports although that’s not a great surprise considering both were right in line with consensus. The uptick in 1yr inflation expectations inside the consumer sentiment data is possibly alarming, but bond traders didn’t seem to care.