Placeholder Ahead of Fed and Big Ticket Data
Placeholder Ahead of Fed and Big Ticket Data The first two days of the week have had the least to offer in terms of scheduled economic data and events. Yesterday’s major exception was the Treasury refunding announcement and today’s was the Bank of Japan announcement in the overnight session. Neither had any lasting impact on the bond market, interestingly enough. In today’s case, it was the European economic data that did the most to start the day off with lower rates, but most of the gains were erased after the Employment Cost Index came out just a bit stronger than expected for Q3. Traders will have to continue to wait for better data-based evidence of “cracks.” Econ Data / Events Employment Cost Index (ECI) 1.1 vs 1.0 f’cast, 1.0 prev FHA Home Prices 0.6 vs 0.5 f’cast (m/m) Case Shiller Home Prices 2.2 vs 1.6 f’cast (y/y) Chicago PMI 44 vs 45 f’cast, 44.1 prev Market Movement Recap 09:16 AM Stronger overnight, mostly on EU data. Pushing back a bit in domestic trading. 10yr still down 3bps at 4.858. MBS up 2 ticks (.06). 09:50 AM A bit more push-back into the 9:30am NYSE open, but sideways since then. 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.863. MBS up 2 ticks (0.06). 03:15 PM Treasuries pushing weakest levels, but still down half a bp on the day at 4.884. MBS outperforming, up an eighth in 6.5 coupons.