Super Sideways Thanks to Europe
Every now and then European markets do favors for the US bond market narrative. They can also detract, but today is not one of those days. Weaker overseas economic data led to overnight gains in EU bonds. Those gains spilled over to US bonds and largely account for the moderate rally seen so far on Tuesday. With that, the present week looks super sideways coming off last week’s rally (as opposed to looking “corrective”–something we may have worried more about yesterday). At this point, we’ve retained roughly half of Friday’s gains and successfully defended a break back into Thursday’s territory. Hurdles remain in the form of the Treasury auction cycle. Today’s 3yr is somewhat relevant, but the 10 and 30yr tenors are more consequential over the next 2 days.