Yesterday’s Losses Easily Erased By Data
Wednesday’s bond market losses rained on Tuesday’s post-CPI parade. Justification was adequate, with Retail Sales coming in 0.2 higher than expected, but the implications for the near future were uncertain. Were bonds only reacting to the data or was the CPI rally overdone to some small extent? Today’s session helped answer those questions. All it took was a modest miss in Jobless Claims and a few other 2nd tier reports for bonds to fully erase Wednesday’s losses.
Econ Data / Events
Jobless Claims
231k vs 220k f’cast, 218k prev
Continued Claims
1865k vs 1847k f’cast, 1833k prev
Philly Fed Index
-5.9 vs -9.0 f’cast/prev
Philly Fed Prices Paid
14.8 vs 23.1 prev
Industrial Production
-0.6 vs -0.3 f’cast, +0.1 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:47 AM Slightly stronger overnight with additional gains after AM econ data. 10yr down 8bps at 4.457. MBS up just over a quarter point, but closer to 3/8ths after adjusting for illiquidity.
11:26 AM Best levels of the day about an hour ago, but giving up ground since then. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) before accounting for illiquidity (8-10 ticks otherwise). 10yr yield down 7.2bps at 4.465.
02:14 PM Flat near best levels. MBS up 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr down 8.8bps at 4.449.
03:20 PM No change from last update. 10s hit the 3pm close at the exact same 4.445 level as Wednesday. MBS still up 14 ticks.
